Concerns about a global recession and bad economic consequences are taking the toll on society. Volatility is still high. The dollar strengthened against the euro for a two-year high. The price of oil fell to 62 USD / barrel.
The results of the season launched gave massive sales in the stock markets. Speculation about the global recession and its depth will take root. The recession in the US economy is estimated to be the worst in 26 years, since 1982. US Federal Reserve Fed Ben Bernanke admitted on Monday that the US economy will be very weak in the coming quarters and that there is a risk of a long-term period in the US economy. At the same time, Podpoil gave a fiscal package that would provide taxpayers with lions and thus support consumer demand.
Two Fed officials admit that the situation in the US economy has deteriorated sharply in recent weeks – consumer doors are collapsing, retail sales are falling, house construction is falling and industrial production is falling sharply. Alan Greenspan, a two-member of the Fed, admitted that he made mistakes when he knew that the banks and financial institutions had a certain instinct for self-preservation, that is, they should be interested in protecting their stock. He thus admitted that the credit crunch overwhelmed his ideas.
Not many companies can drink with better economic results these days, not just. On the contrary, the carmaker finds itself in trouble, asking for help from the governments and the European Union. The results of the car manufacturer Volvo or Toyota ended behind it. The carmakers Peugeot Citren, Daimler, Fiat, Renault and Hyundai dreamed of their results. American General Motors and Chrysler announced the dismissal. Other companies report delayed full expansion in the world, etc.
The British economy fell sharply in the third quarter, unexpectedly, by 0.5%, while the economy grew by only 0.3%. Sales of existing houses in the USA were positively surprised by the fact that, for the first time since 2005, the indicator showed year-on-year growth, while sales increased by 5.5%.
Concerns about the recession have pushed down commodity prices
At a meeting of the OPEC group in Vienna, it was decided to immediately reduce oil production by 1.5 million barrels per day, but even that did not stop the fall in the price of oil on world markets. The price of Brent crude oil fell by USD 8 / barrel to USD 62 / barrel last week. For the first time since 2007, the price of gold fell below the level of 700 USD / ounce, but during the afternoon the gold was traded for 713 USD / ounce, so it fell to prices for the week by only about 70 USD / ounce.
Shares of carmakers and the banking sector fell the most in world markets. The decline in commodity prices then causes it to manufacturing and the energy sector. The American Dow Jones lost about 6.5% (8,273 points in the bird at 16:00) last week, the S&P 500 about 7.5% (869 points), the Nasdaq tm 10% (1,534 points). The Japanese stock market again saw a sharp sell-off, with the Nikkei index losing 12% (to 7,649 points). ).
Even the decline in rates on the interbank market did not lift investors’ sentiment. But the door between the banks is a bit better, sign the approved helper packages for the banking sector in both Europe and the USA. Tmsn dollar rate LIBOR fell last week to 3.52% from 4.41%, tmsn rate EUR to 4.92% from 5.045%.
Graph of oil prices in the 43rd week:
Strengthens the dollar, only, vcarsk franc
Risk aversion is at record levels and market demand is currently for hedging instruments against falling stock market prices and for safe-haven currencies such as the Japanese yen, the US dollar and the Swiss franc. The dollar therefore reached a two-year high against the euro at the level of EUR / USD 1.25 from 1.34 on Monday. Japan only strengthened against the dollar by a high 9% to USD / JPY 92.35, which will have a negative impact on the Japanese economy, which is driven by exports. The pound lost a high 10% against the dollar and fell to 1.55 from 1.73 to GBP / USD. The French franc strengthened from EUR / CHF to 1.52 and at the rate of 1.44, but corrected gains in the week to EUR / CHF 1.46.
Developing markets under selling pressure
At first, they began to multiply in developing countries and investors began to get rid of virtually all investments in emerging markets. Unpleasant information was the proposal of Argentine President Cristina Fernndez to designate pension funds in order to protect the disputes of ordinary people. However, in the case of Argentina, the markets understand this differently, or the same importance happened in 2001 at the time of the bankruptcy. It is therefore speculated that Argentina has such problems with the refinancing of foreign bonds.
Several countries have asked for help from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in the current crisis, with the exception of the once rich Iceland, Pkistn, Ukraine, Belarus and Hungary. And the first problems of Hungary with the weakening me and high deficits of both public budgets and the current balance of payments have hit the whole region, or some differentiate between the countries of the entrance Europe, but many investors are simply getting rid of all investments in the region.
The National Bank of Hungary did not prevent a more significant sale of forint assets either, when on Wednesday it surprisingly raised the basic annual rate by 3% to 11.5%. The market reacted to this decision more than a little, a sharp strengthening of the forint did not take place, which indicates the investor. Finally, the forint weakened against the euro by about 4.5% to EUR / HUF 276 last week, when the weekly high of the exchange rate was 286 EUR / HUF, thus weakening the forint to the euro for several years. The Hungarian stock market fell by 8%, the BUX index to 11,916 points.
esk koruna difficult jzdu na horsk drze
On Thursday, it reached the euro and 26.25, to react, like other developing market currencies, by re-sending the IMF’s report on the readiness of aid in the developing world. The koruna thus ended last week at the level of the EUR / CZK 25.05 exchange rate, when it weakened by 20 halls. The Prague Stock Exchange lost 12% last week and closed at 751 points. The Polish zloty and the Warsaw Stock Exchange also weakened sharply. The zloty lost about 8% to EUR / PLN 3.83 and the stock market lost 13% to 1,555 points. foreign investor very popular.
Graph of EUR / CZK exchange rate development in the 43rd week: