The world is much more uncertain and risky, court economist Jan vejnar

A lot has changed in recent years, many people have encountered situations in which the two have not encountered unemployment, income and the need to read. How are the five current changes, what are you looking for and how are young economists? Talk about it with an economist and professor at the American University of Michigan and at the Czech CERGE-EI Jan Vejnar.

It gave the worlds a crisis and a slowdown in the European economy impact on each of the US. If the euro area continues to fall apart, it will not be affected. His question is whether he will have a job, a pension for food, a roof over his head and once a pension. Most people suffer that the government does not deal with disputes, but takes individuals.

“For the last 20 years, we have been living beyond our means and are now tightening our belts. And the future will go t 잚. We have to be efficient, keep getting up and so be modest. But I understand that it is very demotivating, when the government takes people’s pensions and wills billions of you alone on pedraench zakzkch, ”to Jan vejnar.

which that the main difference compared to the past is that the world is much more uncertain and far away from the risk. Do you like the moment?
That’s right. Take leton lto. One day it’s 35 degrees, he put 15, so it repeats around and around. At the same time, the average temperature can easily remain below the same. So the economy will not succeed on average, but there are big fluctuations. And let’s see in the exchange rate of the koruna in euros, or in stock market prices. And a hunter has an aversion to risk, that for certainty. The two of us grew up in a society where there were at least seeming certainties. The whole communist system was not sustainable, but the ordinary hunter who lived in it was interesting. And now there is a new system that we have to adapt to and get used to the fact that we will change jobs much more often, even ten times in your life. And also don’t rely on stt and make sure we have in retirement from eho t.

Imagine such a normal Czech family with below-average incomes, what advice would you give me how to secure for the future?
First, to ensure good education. Even lifelong learning is important. And go to retirement? Still here is the first trial of the saw, so be sure to contribute there. And here I would like to warn especially those who do business before paying social security. I get a lot of things and they wouldn’t get anything from the stt. And then I would recommend to save about five percent of the income that comes every month. If that’s not possible, then at least, I consider about seven percent.

And where are the twenty best pensions?
Choose some kind of passive fund, to get them indexes, and there regularly save. In the long run, it is ideal. They do not actively buy or sell passive funds, while they hold shares and bonds from all over the world. The sloen portfolio is t mon namchat by age.

Also don’t agree much with the government’s proposed second saw?
The system that is being created here is considered non-native. We must realize that the first drink is actually a bond of the Czech government, and the Czech government undertakes to pay people so much and so much in the future. It’s just that it depends on how the whole republic is doing. If the nonsense is somehow earthquakeed, and sales or politically, the government may not be able to pay the pensions. And in this he should first help the second drinker, but time washed and guided. I proposed the first creation of one underlying passive fund, to which the people, calmly and obligatorily, would send a certain percentage of the salary. And so they could withdraw from this fund at any time and pay their pensions elsewhere. This is how it works in a widow and there’s no reason why it doesn’t work in our country. Only NERV is only an advisory body and politics intervenes as a result.

And does not passive funds threaten the crisis?
Passively managed funds have been managed by more than most active managers in recent years. Other studies also show that passive funds have low long-term returns for developers with a long-term return of less than 80 percent of all active managed funds.

Where can I find such a fund?
They aren’t much for us yet, but you can find them on the internet. There are very world renowned companies that are able to manage a portfolio for 0.1 percent even me. In addition, you do not charge a fee for the appreciation of the property, also for the decade when you send pensions to the fund, you only pay on the fees pkn balk. You, Vanguard, have all the world’s funds. So I would look for cost, one and two tenths of a percent, depending on how the worlds of stock exchanges are represented in the fund.

But what do I ever want into the world? You also because of the barium languages.
Then I would like to see what the bank houses in our country offer. Some also offer these passive funds. They’re a little more expensive than the worlds, but that’s the entrance. And it is good to go to at least two banks to lovkmohlporovnvat.

Time, but it is assumed to determine a degree of financial literacy. What should they give you?
Then it is definitely good to use the products to which it contributes, ie building savings and pension connections. But I think that support can be gradually reduced, because it is very expensive and contribute to it from their taxes, even those who do not raise.

And real estate investment?
Investing in real estate is relatively safe, but there is also a degree of risk. First of all, we must realize that first because it is a property and can not be moved. You don’t have to pack it in a suitcase in case of an invasion and take it with you.

Sell ​​her ovens to him.
Yes, but at that moment it is far from worth it. But otherwise in a stable environment it is a good investment for people who use it in the consumer sense, ie they live or rent it. If we don’t build a house, it’s not a very good investment, it won’t create gold the same added value as you do. In addition, we have low property taxes with us, and when the government will look for where to teach, it will probably come down here as well. And then the property, which is not actively developed, becomes five and so it will be for sale. Take opt risk, far in t not dv.

When did you change the gold, is it vs good investment?
Recently, many people have saved their pensions in gold. But most of them did not realize that it is one of the most risky investments. For gold, it’s not like a company that makes something. Gold does not create added value, its price depends only on how people expect demand to develop. And I come to an accelerated assessment, as we have seen in recent days. Urit also plays a role in the crowd, when the price rises and rises, it leads to the purchase. Only then will there be a rapid pdu again. Also a piece of land where we can grow something, in the end it may be worth not gold, which you ask, but do not let him.

What about you and the loan, how do you approach debt?
There are two extreme patterns. One that we have from my grandmother not to drink at the bottom price, because when I owe anyone, I won’t be back. And the kind of extreme where people drink absolutely everything. And the truth will be somewhere in between. Personally, I don’t think debt is bad. A country that would work entirely on a cash in advance system, that is, when it has to be paid in advance, will have a fraction of the value of the system that will operate the loans over time.

And when will I put it back on that normal hunter?
When we take the life of a hunter, at a young age and age he needs more, not production, that is, he clearly borrows and then in the middle age he produces more, not consumable. It is also optimal to sometimes consume and consume more and sometimes, on the contrary, to produce more value than the one we consume. However, it is important to work with debt intelligently, ie definitely not to borrow things, their consumption value is shortly not long.

Also, what are you good at?
It’s good to sleep on the floor until we’re done, but I wouldn’t be in debt for a good distance. My colleague Dan Mnich and I did a study and found that the return on investment in distances is enormous. A good bike will guarantee you a lot of better work and I can also do the train. And I think a good bike is really good. In the world, it doesn’t matter at all how many dogs you have before and after the name, but first of all, always ask which cola you studied. I hope that the quality of education will soon start to be decided in Czech, so that we do not have to boast not only how old our universities are, but as dark as they are good. But to be so positive, that’s why I co-founded the Center for Economic Research and Doctoral Studies CERGE-EI here and 20 years ago. And the results are.

m is that car united?
Vuka course in English, we follow the American system. The curriculum and teaching is the same as if they were studying at a prestigious American university, you at Harvard, with the only difference being that they stay in Prague and do not pay for college. Students receive a scholarship that will cost them their lives, ie accommodation and food. Let’s accept graduates with at least a bachelor’s degree, it is a postgraduate study. However, the previous distance does not have to be economical, we have mathematics, statistics or graduates of technical faculties. Ideal for those graduates who do the work and have the desire to stay up and get a job. Master’s studies last two years and doctoral studies last for five years.

What about a young economist?
I dare to know that students can do what is not possible elsewhere in Central and Entrance Europe. So to think logically and use mathematics in modeling and evaluation. Then everyone think similarly and even if they have different proposals, they understand the essence of the others. This will optimize the problems in the world of uncertainty and risk, so that they can survive in life and you will be better off. They are able to operate around the world. Among the companies that choose our graduates are, for example, the Czech National Bank, the International Monetary Fund, the OECD, the United Nations and the World Bank. Piblin aunt of them then worked as a high-level teacher in the Czech Republic and abroad, and then became the main economists of banks and partners in major private companies. Namely, I would like to name our first graduate, you Michael Erbenov, who currently works in the International Monetary Fund, or Lubomr Lzal, who is a member of the NB bank board, and only Nerva Daniel Mnich. I Governor NB Miroslav Singer not CERGE-EI uil.

And on top of that, what would Jan Vejnar never drink to?
I wouldn’t go to a casino game, roulette.

Related Posts