Falling commodity prices and fears of a financial problem in the financial sector have sent world stock indices down. Stock markets have fallen the most since 2002.
Last week, he began calmly on the front of macroeconomic data, when the United States celebrated the holy world. The center of attention was therefore Hurricane Gustav, which was approaching New Orleans and for which evacuation workers had to be on oil rigs in the Gulf of Mexico. But in the end, the pedpokldan sla huriknu did not fill up.
The price of oil, like other commodities, fell last week due to the OECD’s public expectation of a markedly slow growth in Europe’s largest economies this year. Brent oil fell by about 9 USD / barrel to 105 USD / barrel during the afternoon.
The OECD said that the US economy is likely to grow the fastest of the G7 this year. The dollar thus had room to send darkness and at 11msn maximum vi koi mn (dollar index). The dollar strengthened against the euro by more than 3 percent. He liked the piblin by 2.8 percent. In addition, British Finance Minister Darling said that the biggest downturn in the British economy in the last 60 years was expected. The decision of the Bank of England (BoE) to keep the base rate at 5 percent did not help either, as the BoE still has two priorities in the fight against inflation, rather than saving the economy from the recession.
The ECB has not set rates yet
The second significant event of the week was the meeting of the European Central Bank, which thus left rates unchanged (basic annual rate at 4.25 percent) and did not surprise me in its opinion. Markets again hoped for some year-long rates in the euro area, but this did not happen. On the contrary, JC Trichet emphasized the risk of secondary inflationary pressures and the risk of a resurgence in commodity prices, and thus food prices.
On the other hand, the Central Bank of Australia (RBA) did not disappoint the markets, when after a number of basic years, rates in the ordinary of this year rose by 25 points to 7 percent last week, according to the expectations. The Australian dollar and the New Zealand dollar therefore managed to sell further in the markets, and both fell against the dollar by about 5 percent last week.
Job report disappointed
In the second week, the dollar wiped out a small hundred of its profits, when it was a pleasant surprise at first about employment in August. The US economy lost a high 84 thousand jobs, while estimates were around 70 thousand. The unemployment rate has risen to 6.1 percent from 5.7 percent in July, and is currently at a 5-year high, suggesting that the slowdown in the US economy is likely to worsen. In other cities, according to some analysts, the number of jobs could decrease between 100-200 thousand months.
Concerns about slowing global growth and its impact on financial markets set off a wave of risk-averse carry-offs, which helped the Japanese yen and the Swiss franc. It only strengthened against the dollar by 2 percent, against the euro by 4.4 percent and the franc against the euro by about 1.8 percent.
Sales on the stock markets
The decline in commodity prices on world markets was due to the sale of an action by companies engaged in processing commodities. In addition, the problems with financing were reduced by the shares of banks and financial institutions. The combined global MSCI stock index therefore experienced the largest weekly decline since 2002, by 5.6 percent.
In particular, the Japanese Nikkei lost about 6 percent, the British FTSE lost about 6 percent, the German DAX lost about 3 percent, the US S&P lost about 4 percent, the Dow Jones about 3 percent and the Nasdaq high darkness 6 percent.
Prices of other commodities also fell
The price of gold fell by about 3 percent to 812 USD / ounce, mainly due to the dollar and the fall in oil prices on world markets. The price of platinum fell by about 7 percent to 1,383 USD / ounce, silver by 6 percent to 12.91 USD / ounce, so these precious metals are at 11-12msnch lows. Prices of agricultural commodities, such as corn, wheat and grains, also fell by 4-5 percent.
Central Europe under selling pressure
Both me and the stock markets of Central Europe lost sharply last week. Stock exchanges thus followed those worlds. The Prague Stock Exchange depreciated the most (about 6.5 percent), followed by the Budapest Stock Exchange with a loss of about 5.7 percent and the Warsaw Stock Exchange wrote off “only” 3.3 percent.
The revision of Hungary’s economic growth confirmed that the economy grew by 2.0 percent in the second quarter compared to the previous estimate of 1.7 percent. At first, this did not help the forint very well. In Slovakia, on the other hand, the first estimate of growth in the second quarter was confirmed at 7.6 percent, which was 1.7 percentage points less than in the same period in 2007.
The volume on the currency market turned to the US dollar, so the Central European currencies also sold out. The koruna lost only 0.6 percent, the zloty 3.5 percent and the forint 2.1 percent. Moreover, the Central European currency will not be affected by the fact that the rate for further years of rates in the region is declining, even though in Poland there is still a maximum of 25 points, so the base year rate could still reach 6.5 percent.