Tden up: klesla oil under $ 50 a barrel

The deepening crisis in the US economy, as well as the initial slowdown in the developing world, is lowering oil prices. For the first time since May 2005, a barrel of oil is trading below the magic $ 50.

The G20 meeting did not bring much aftermath, except that the countries agreed to avoid outside protectionism and follow the path of fiscal measures to support economic activity. Since last week’s meeting, markets have ruled negatively at first, both from the corporate environment and from individual economies. Inflation in both the United States and the United Kingdom has been declining rapidly, so the debate is not about inflation and its secondary effects, but about the risk of deflation.

Dream of spending money in several financial and banking institutions. For example, Citigroup reported her seventh employee. Deutsche Bank, especially in New York and London, is also set to make ends meet. Japan’s economy plunged into recession after seven years of growth, with GDP declining by 0.1% in the third quarter and mezzanine by 0.4%. The reason is, among other things, the strong Japanese yen, which is down to exports. House prices in the United Kingdom fell in November, this time with high gaps of 7.1%. In June, consumer inflation in the United Kingdom fell the most since the last month since the CPI in 1997: it fell from 5.2% to 5.2%, and inflation fell from 2.2% to 1.9%. The Bank of England will be able to reduce the different decline in inflation according to the years of the rate and thus reach the last rate cut by 1.5%.

In the United States, prices in June were followed by the largest decline in history in June, namely producer prices by 2.8%, while in the meantime it fell by 8.7% to 5.2%, which surpassed sharply, as did the decline in consumer inflation. Meziron CPI, the mc index of consumer inflation, fell from 4.9 to 3.7%. The sharp fall in inflation has raised a wave of fears of deflation in the world’s largest economy. Concerns were also supported by a public referendum from the last meeting of the US Federal Reserve, which reduced the estimate of economic growth in 2009 from 2-2.8% to -0.2-1.1%. The Fed thus sweat with the possibility of falling inflation in 2009 below the inflation rate of 1-2%. According to the referendum, the Fed is ready to dream according to the rate years.

The stock markets continue to run

Concerns about deflation hit stock markets, which fell by 3-5% in the middle of the middle. On Thursday, stock market losses deepened in the afternoon after the number of new unemployed in the US rose by 27,000 to 542,000 in the previous week, bringing the total US economy to more than 1.2 million jobs this year and unemployment located at 14ronm maximum 6.5%.

The stock markets also lost ground during the five-month trading period, when the euro area industry indexes (PMI) clearly disappointed in November in both the services sector and the manufacturing sector. The PMI in euro area production fell to 36.2 points from 41.1 points in June, and in the services sector the index fell to 43.3 points from 45.8 points in June. An index value below 50 points represents a contraction in a given sector.

In the past week, global stocks, named MSCI, stock markets fell by about 12%. The Japanese Nikkei index lost 6.5% to 7910 points, the British FTSE lost a total of 9.8% to 3820 points during the afternoon, the German DAX 12.0% to 4165 points. For example, the local stock exchange fell sharply, by 15% to 1534 points, the Czech stock exchange lost 8.0% to 744 points, the Hungarian stock exchange lost 7.4% to 10987 points and the Warsaw stock exchange 6.9% to 1589 points.

The price of oil is under $ 50 a barrel

In response to the deepening crisis in the world economy, the price of oil fell below $ 50 per barrel, the lowest level since March 2005. The financial crisis has pushed it down, or pushed it into recession in the fourth quarter of the advanced industrialized countries and will not fail quickly developing the earth, such as e.g. on, its growth should fall in the fifth year and to eight percent.

The fall in the price of oil is not stopped even by speculation that OPEC will meet on Saturday, November 29, at its hastily convened. The truth is that even the countries that are members of OPEC cannot agree on whether it is best for them, when some countries argue for the loss of state income, which is currently necessary to support domestic economies.

Commodity prices fell by a dark 7% last week, according to the Reuters-Jefferies index. Platinum and palladium, for example, have also fallen sharply this year, falling by more than two-thirds since their peak this year, mainly due to a sharp drop in car sales, where both of these commodities are used in the production of diesel and petrol catalysts. Agricultural commodity prices also continued to decline last week. On the contrary, the price of gold increased during the five-month trading period, in the past week a total of 5.0% (39USD) to 783 USD per ounce.

The dollar wiped out the profit, only strengthened

The dollar was most affected by fears of deflation in the US and the expected sharp decline in the US economy has not been so far. The dollar therefore weakened in the second week and lost about 0.4% to EUR / USD 1.2578 against the euro for the whole week. On the other hand, the pound was supported by a sharp decline in inflation, which, according to the day, does not bring further year-round rates, which will support the British economy. The pound thus added 2.2% to GBP / USD 1.4927 against the dollar and 1.8% against EUR / GBP 0.8414. The Swiss franc was hit by a quarterly reduction in annual rates by the central bank by 1%. The franc thus weakened against the euro by 2% to EUR / CHF 1.53; to the dollar by 2.1% to USD / CHF 1.22. Japan was only supported by sales on the stock markets and thus strengthened against the dollar by 1.26% to USD / JPY 94.90.

Stedoevropsk mny ztrcej

The currencies of Central Europe, especially the Czech koruna and the Polish zloty, have lost their attractiveness and, like other currencies in the developing market, have been selling several weeks. The reason is the fear of a significant impact of the slowing down of Western Europe on the Czech economy. Poland was characterized by attractive years of rates, but it is so clear that they reached the top and two or later they will go down. Last week, the zloty lost the most to the euro, namely 4% at the EUR / PLN 3.85 exchange rate, the lowest level since April 2007. The koruna moved against the euro to 25.74 crowns and thus lost 2% to the dollar. traded in the bird podveer at 20.46 crowns. The Hungarian forint lost 0.6% to the euro, hovering at EUR / HUF 267.

Graph: Development of the EUR / CZK exchange rate

EUR / CZK dust graph

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