Problmy s prognzami pi investovn

The predictable return on investment in the capital markets is fully deserved of discipline, which does not have a good reputation. This activity plays with immorality.

“Will rates rise for years? Where is the stock market going? These questions are usually the least important, because no one can answer them systematically and with certainty. Or questions like: Where will the stock market for est msc from now? At US Morningstar, we are looking for good catch funds. One of the trends we have discovered is that the best managers are those that take the least amount of time to debate, which is the direction of the stock market. ” The opinion was published by Don Phillips, editor and founder of Morningstar (an agency that values ​​the performance of American mutual funds), in an interview with Ken Stern, author of Secrets of the Investment All Stars.

We cannot do without forecasting

And if we work as an investment of professionals, or just worry about our own pensions, we must always have at least a very rough idea of ​​what returns from securities and other types of investments can provide in the future – despite Don Phillips’ skeptical views. Some financial institutions, especially insurance and pension funds, have to predict long-term returns on securities in their portfolios, in contrast to mutual funds, in order to meet their obligations to clients.

The risk is much more important, so we know how much we can drink in the worst case. So we have to predict, and we want it or not. Let us now look at this issue from a purely practical point of view: we are particularly interested in the robustness and the accuracy of the forecasts, so we do not want to take this activity for the rest of the time. time, which we take into account for the foreseeable input, we will devote to the foreseeable risks. Predicting risks is first and foremost, and secondly, this activity has a much more solid theoretical and practical basis compared to predicting risk-taking.

Let us focus on forecasting in the short term (up to one year) and in the long term (several years and decades). However, let’s get into the discussion about the benefits and risks of each type of investment, we should be aware of a few dleitch fact.

The capital market does not behave like poas

We all know problems with pedpov poas. Meteorologists “see” only a few days into the future. The accuracy of short-term forecasts is around 85%. With increasing time horizon, reliability decreases rapidly: long-term (msn) forecasts have only about 65% accuracy, predicting weather for a long time is not worth it. Similarly, there are often two laymen in the capital market. “Don’t you have to predict the odds of the event even for two days in advance?” zn ast astonished question. No, it’s not mon. The first short-term (and very short-term) forecasts of the breeding capital market do not have a long price. They can only have a certain validity in special cases: for example in illiquid markets, where there is a constant demand or supply. In such markets, it is difficult to realize any profit from better forecasts.

I have a mature market, so it is predictably difficult

At the same time there is an opinion that the Czech capital market is breeding unpredictable, because the jet is not sufficiently developed. The exact opposite is true. The market is mature and more efficient, so it is possible to predict its breeding in the near future. The famous British statistician Sir Maurice Kendall was surprised by this seemingly paradoxical finding, when in the 1950s he found unpredictable breeding prices on the Chicago Commodity Exchange. Sir Maurice was surprised by the fact that (as he noted in his work): “Chicago is not a day of decline and the stock market is very advanced.” Today we know that this was not an exception, but a rule.

Long-term estimates are sometimes more reliable than short-term

Indeed, there is no serious possibility of predicting the development of the price of securities (especially the event) for the month and the year ahead. Surprisingly, the inputs of the event behave much more regularly in the long term than in the short. Although short-term predictions of the introduction of valuable beams are suspected at best, the hormone is thoughtfully introduced. In this case, short-term predicts the return of the action do not represent a serious tool for investment decision makers.

Strings nvod, like pedpovdat krtkodob vnosy
Neutrln estimate prava (+ / -)
Penn trh Short-term years rates Oekvan zmna krtkodobch rokovch mr
Bonds Entry to maturity Capital input (loss) corresponding to the expected change of years mr
Shares Estimates based on long-term historical input statistics According to the best experience, it is not possible to recommend a given method of short-term predictive course action
Ciz mny Nulov zmna According to the best experience, the current method of short-term foreign exchange rate cannot be recommended
Real estate Extrapolation of short-term trend or assumption of zero change Subjective expert opinion on the development of the real estate market
String guide how to predict long-term deposits
Neutrln estimate prava (+ / -)
Penn trh Estimates based on long-term historical input statistics Strategic study on the possibilities of long-term macroeconomic development (especially with regard to inflation risk)
Bonds, shares Estimates based on long-term historical input statistics Analysis of branches of the structure of a given stock market in connection with expected trends in technology, economics and society
Real estate Estimates based on long-term historical input statistics Macroeconomic analysis and expert estimation of prospects of a given locality
Ciz mny Nulov zmna Estimate based on expected development of purchasing power parity, years and central bank credibility

ryvek is from the book
Investin strategy for tet tiscilet

vydan nakladatelstvm City Publishing,
You can find more information at

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