However, the labor market remains the biggest risk to the US economy. Even though the economy grew in the third quarter, it is still growing without the creation of new jobs. The main reason for the stabilization of the housing market and the calm calm in the banking sector was the aggressive monetary policy of the US central bank.
Last year, the US published a very expected economic data from the labor market for labor statistics. According to them, in November in the USA, employment in non-agricultural sectors decreased by 11 thousand jobs. This was the best result since January last year, when in the USA, for the first time in many years, as a precursor to the crisis, employment began to decline again.
The November results were all the more pleasantly surprised that the vast consensus on the market was with a significant reduction in employment, by more than 110,000 jobs. Surprisingly, you were leading the November unemployment rate. Only a small amount, after rising above the 10 percent mark to 10.2 percent, fell against the equities by two tenths of a percent to 10 percent.
The best results were mostly due to the service sector, in which 85 percent of all workers are employed. Surprisingly, it created 58 thousand jobs in November and thus significantly compensated for the fall in employment by 69 thousand jobs in the construction and manufacturing sectors. What’s more, the average number of hours worked was a sharp increase, growing only from 40.1 hours to 40.4 hours in the manufacturing sector alone.
As follows from the five results, the situation on the hard-hit labor market continues to stabilize, which has grown freshly in the sails of traders in the financial markets, who immediately after the public report began to buy stocks in large numbers.
The days when the US economy lost more than 600,000 jobs in the meantime are a thing of the past. In the future, the United States will have to deal with one problem, with an army of more than 15 million unemployed people.
After all, the US economy has managed to grow steadily in the third quarter, and so far it has been revived without the creation of new jobs. At the same time, the bustle itself has been driven in recent months by almost all government officials, which have helped companies quickly empty their warehouses and resume production.
In addition, the aggressive monetary policy of the US central bank, which was the main cause of stabilization in the housing market, and a calm calm in the banking sector, which threatened to drive before a few months of acute collapse, had a far greater supportive effect. In the first year, however, the effect of these stimulus measures will disappear, which will cause many companies and households to get into trouble again.
The fact that the number of unemployed should fall sharply in the next year is therefore still very low, which is also expected by the US Central Bank, which swarms with unemployment at the end of this year just below 10 percent.
Although the number of unemployed people in the future is likely to stabilize at around 15 million, the biggest problem for the future remains the recipients of unemployment benefits. After six months, they lose their claim to the courts, which were often the only source of their income.
While in the middle of the year the number of ten recipients reached less than 7 million, in the last week of November it fell to 5.5 million and it is very likely that it will continue to fall. Recognizing the effect of the stimulation of the economy by the government and the central bank, together with very weak consumer demand, therefore, the United States economy will hit it hard again in the first year.