Market week: Obama’s tax levy and oil slump

Last week’s data is generally negative. Oil fell by a record drop of 11%. The dollar was not so successful, it only kept its time on all traded crossings. The koruna did not significantly change its position.

Obama’s left lion

Monday’s day did not bring much new economic data, so Barack Obama’s statement on tax cuts, especially for the middle class, was worth $ 310 billion. A similar first appeared from Germany with a mon injection of 50 billion euros for the local economy. Shares in the country and in Europe then reacted positively to these initially. This effect only lasted for European titles, while in the US stocks ended in the red (DJIA -0.91%). The Czech stock exchange ended its session in the positive (PX + 1.6%), mainly due to the rapid growth of the actions of the developer Orco, which strengthened by more than 16%, which was not supported by days of fundamental information.

The US dollar was successful in wiping out the knowledge of its previous euro losses thanks to Obama’s insult. The Czech crowns managed to get to the single European currency and EUR / CZK 26.40.

Oil closed Monday’s well-known trade, with the North Sea trading above $ 49 a barrel. Monday was thus characterized by the deteriorating situation around gas supplies through Ukraine according to Europe, for example in the Czech Republic, supplies were lower by 10%.

Stock rallies and the rise of the dollar

Riching up new data was not even the case, so it can be speculated that he was riding the wave of future fiscal stimuli of the incoming American president. The dollar was growing against the euro against the euro according to growth and this growth would probably last, moreover with the support of the US ISM result for the services sector (growth from 37.3 b to 40.6 b), if there were no new negative data from the US on the real estate market and new factory orders. The koruna strengthened against the euro and below the level of 26 EUR / CZK.

European stocks hit growth on Monday. The name index DJ Euro Stoxx 50 ended up in the dark by 1%. Shares in the stock also benefited from this growth, when the Dow Jones Industrial Average strengthened by 0.69%. The stock market continued to gain profit and ended 2.4% up (PX). The jumper of the day was the shares of task company NWR, which rose by 9.6% compared to Monday. The main reason was the price of oil. The return rate of the North Sea brent was around $ 50 per barrel. According to Jet, the situation around Russian gas has arisen, with deliveries across Ukraine dropping it to only a quarter of the original flow. Nap. Slovakia has declared a state of emergency because of this. ei, the president of the EU, is trying to get to the negotiating table on both sides – Russia’s Gazprom and Ukraine’s Naftogaz.

Seup oil and miserable US labor market

On Wednesday, the common European currency strengthened it against the dollar since the year, although it had no reason to do so, because some negative fundamentals from Europe were published, which were certainly somewhat effective. In December, for the first time since November 2006, the number of German unemployed grew, although not sharply, but the market expected stagnation. The unemployment rate jumped by a tenth of a percentage point to 7.6%. In the afternoon, the European currency had a reason for the gym on the dollar line, when the ADP report changed with a threatening result – in December, 693 thousand people worked for work in the private sector, while analysts expected only a little under 500 thousand. The Czech koruna weakened sharply against the euro.

Both European stocks and the American ones went south, with the DJIA playing 2.72%, erasing all the gains they had made this week. We managed a similar impact in R, where the PX index fell by 2.8%, the share of the day was CME shares, which recorded a loss of more than 7%.

We have seen a record drop in oil. The return price of the North Sea brent was just above $ 45 per barrel, which meant a weakening of 11% compared to the quarterly price drop. The reason was a very unexpected increase in the amount of black gold in the USA by 6.7 million barrels, while the market expected an increase of only 0.7 million barrels. The situation around Russian gas has intensified when Russian gas has grown to flow fully into Europe. R found this situation with deliveries from Norway.

relevant data from the euro area and the Bank of England rates

The fourth trading session continued to have very weak data from the euro area, with the German trade surplus declining to 10.7 billion euros in November, with an expected 14 billion euros. We managed to fall from -25 b to -30 b at the consumer yard in EMU. Many of them did not expect German goods orders, their volume decreased by 6% compared to the originally estimated decline of 1.8%. Unemployment in EMU rose by a tenth of a percentage point to 7.8%, which was an equivalent. Despite these very bad dates and even though the number of new enough about unemployment benefits was only 496 thousand compared to the expected 545 thousand, the dollar continued to weaken. The yen was doing well at all traded crossings. The exchange rate of the koruna against the euro has remained virtually unchanged.

An important event was the reduction in the key to the British central bank’s rate of years by a full percentage point to 1.5%. This step was the case. The British Central Bank has declared its will to allow the policy to continue.

In the stock markets, we witnessed an ambiguous day, when the DJIA weakened by 0.31%, but the S&P 500 ended in the black. European stocks fell only slightly by 0.6% (DJ Euro Stoxx 50 index). The PX index also ended in the same way, when the loser of the day on the PSE were the shares of CME, which lost almost 7%, which could be expected, because they recorded significant gains in the last month. Brent oil stagnated at around $ 45 per barrel.

In the effects of unemployment from the USA

On the fifth day, the German retail needs started, which increased by 0.7% in the meantime, according to an analyst. From Germany, saw data on industrial production, which fell by 3.1% in November, she showed that analysts are still very optimistic. The exchange rate of the euro against the dollar remained virtually untouched by these at first (as of 12:00). Industrial production in the United Kingdom also developed very badly, falling by 2.3% in the meantime in November, while the decline was only 0.5%. The island economy also provided data on its PPI, with industrial producer prices falling by an expected 2% in December compared to November.

The Western European stock markets were in a slight minus for about an hour, and with them the PSE, where the selling pressure was mainly exerted by Erste Bank shares, especially because Citi reduced its target price of these shares to less than half. Oil traded relatively calmly, only declining slightly.

The domestic economy provided unemployment data of 6.0% in December, while in November it was 5.3%. The koruna reacted to the euro with a slump. RWE Transgas has confirmed that the gas supply to the country is still 100%, which will determine the needy public, which may not freeze.

At 14:30, data on US unemployment is highly expected, which should rise from 6.7% in November to 7.0% in December. This will make a very significant mess with the market and change the five balance sheets.

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