Japan has been hit by the financial crisis: export problems

Two days before the third day, Japan announced the results of foreign trade for November, which were very worrying. The Ministry of Finance of the world’s largest economy (the name of GDP) stated that Japanese exports of goods fell by 26.7% in November. Imports also fell, but only by 14.4%, which eventually resulted in a foreign trade deficit of JPY 223 billion.

Higher imports were more noticeable for species in the world, which has not happened in Japan since 1980. It is true that November was poor on working days, but even after taking this fact into account, the Japanese trade balance remained in high dispute.

The development was in the mountains at Japan’s main trading partner – the United States, where exports fell by as much as 33.8%. Even the Asian states did not sweat Japan, when they also dreamed significantly their demand for goods from the lands of the setting sun. At the same time, it was very stable for a long time and the Japanese relied on it to the best of their knowledge.

It is easy to guess that the fall in exports (34.5%) affected the automotive sector the most, which is traditionally known in the pro-cyclical sector, which means that it is strongly linked to the development of global economies (cars are long-term consumer goods and dobch etme most). For a long time, the most successful Japanese carmaker and the world’s second-largest carmaker, Toyota, estimates that in this fiscal year, which will take place in Japan for the next five years, it will incur operating losses, which would be the first time in the company’s 71 years.

The blame is, of course, on the global economic recession, the primary phenomenon of which is the significant reduction in aggregate demand. But Japan was impressed by one fact, and that is a record strong Japanese yen. Depending on the current situation, one dollar could be below 90 yen. When the exchange rate changes, Japanese goods abroad are relatively expensive, which causes sales to Japanese producers.

But is this situation special?

The Japanese are highly spoiv, meaning a high supply of capital in the Japanese capital market, which causes – among other pins – in Japan it is a few years of peace or capital appreciation. Conversely, in the United States, where there are good investment investments and with which Japan trades, people are obsessed with spending their resources, so many disputes do not create, which means that there is a relatively low supply of capital in the US capital market, which leads to many years. , and thus vtmu evaluated chapter.

This means that the Japanese naeten kapitl long-term tee from Japan e.g. first to the US, where it helps to finance new investments. This causes Japan to have a long-term deficit in its financial balance of payments, which in the long run is putting pressure on the yen’s depreciation. Weak only then pirozen pomh Japanese exportrm and it is usually in the surplus on the Japanese balance of goods and services. If this is the case, you can see on the pilot chart.

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When Japan’s disease surplus has a trade balance on its trade (and performance) balance, it can be seen that the situation is bad. It is only two months away, but it is assumed that Japan will see deficits in the future.

The Bank of Japan, the Central Bank of Japan, has recently tried to alleviate the export situation by lowering its key annual rate to 0.1%. This should push for the depreciation of the Japanese yen. This reduction was only in the range of 0.2 percentage points – and what was more, it was accompanied by a reduction in the key years of the US Federal Reserve rate, in a much more drastic way. Therefore, the weakening yen does not happen and Japanese exports are in a bad situation.

On exports, the bag of the Japanese economy is very upright, or it has been met for a long time with weak domestic demand (when the Japanese are, so logically, they suffer). Japan, which is currently in recession (fulfilled the condition of two consecutive quarters of negative growth), is likely to go through the recession for a long time.

Over a number of years, Japan’s central bank has been following not only a revival in exports, but also a revival in domestic demand. The supply of liquidity to the Japanese banking system may not be the best price. Japan is quite in a situation that is known among economists as a liquidity trap. This means that the rates are so low that the demand for pensions is sensitive indefinitely. He poured pension into the economy, so he did not find a clear response. This pump of liquidity into the system will, in the future, choose its tax in the form of increased inflation.

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