A week on the market: carmakers will probably fall, and the euro is on horseback, oil will catch up

The US Sent has rejected financial assistance from cars, which in the short term worsens the perceptions of the US economy, as companies probably do not live for weeks without the help. The dollar fell by more than 4% on the euro. Compared to the end of last week, oil strengthened by 10%, according to OPEC statistics, less oil was extracted, which was not expected.

The sweat of the week was marked by Barack Obama’s statement about the full future of his government to invest around USD 500 billion in infrastructure, bicycles and the like. The expectant was also decided to help more than 14 billion USD to American carmakers, to whom we had to repack the bag, and on Thursday. Sent eventually rejected the aid, not least because of the instability of US unions, which insisted on maintaining their current salaries at General Motors and Chrysler. In the short term, this worsens the outlook for the US economy, as changing companies without the help of a bank is unlikely to be successful for weeks. This fact will mean that a significant number of Americans will lose their jobs.

The main macroeconomic figure this week was the British PPI, which fell by 3.3% (expected -4.3%) at the time of entry and by 0.7% (expected -1.0%) at the entry. This only confirmed that the current recession is accompanied by the feared deflation, which, according to certain theories, can prolong and deepen the recession. The UK economy has also provided further information on the manufacturing industry, which has fallen by only 1.7% in the meantime and by as much as 5.2% in the meantime, as a result of recent tradition, the knowledge of the mountains, not as the eye of the professional public. The last result was the German industrial production for the yen, which fell by 2.1% interim and by 3.8% intermittently, which was a bit of a mountain result, not expected. The results of the manufacturing industry were also announced for the entire European Monetary Union, when production fell by 1.2% in the meantime in June and even by 5.3% compared to the previous year. The recession of the euro area is thus confirmed by other data.

From the USA, we had the opportunity to learn positively at first that second-hand sales fell by only 0.7% in the meantime, while the decline was more than 3%. Zmosk economy thus provided information on the result of the federal economy for November. The federal budget deficit was $ 164.4 billion, which was a little better, it was not forecast. The number of new ones was enough of the unemployment benefit. This amounted to 573 thousand, which is the worst result since 1982. The last last macro macro from the US was the balance of US foreign trade, which ended in a deficit of 57.2 billion USD. The results from the USA thus indicate a continuing global recession.

In the early hours of the morning, the results of the first revision of Japan’s GDP for the third quarter of this year saw. The quarter-on-quarter decline was 0.5%, while the original results signaled a change in GDP of only -0.2%. Private investment has been absorbed, but especially exports, on which Japan is dependent on life, because it has been meeting weak domestic demand for a long time. In addition to the global recession, the Japanese export code has been strengthening strongly in recent months. Regarding Japanese exports, it is worth noting that they are falling not only to the eurozone countries and the USA, but also to other Asian countries, such as where in 2009 GDP will grow “only” by about 6%. Thus, the Japanese data confirmed that the global economy is in a deepening recession.

This week was interesting from the point of view of the Czech macro. The consumer price index fell by 0.5% month-on-month in November and rose by only 4.4% month-on-year, mainly due to significantly lower fuel prices. GDP for the third quarter showed quarter-on-quarter growth of only 0.9% and quarter-on-quarter growth of 4.2% (the original estimate was 4.7%). Gradually dreaming of economic growth has two reasons. This house is not a real growth of households for final consumption. This was also due to the recession in the countries of our trading partners, which also means a reduced demand for our exports, which will significantly increase our economic growth. It was interesting that S corrected the GDP growth figure for the last year from 6.5% to 5.9%. It follows that our economy has been cooling for a long time, it did not seem, and it is known that our economy would be deteriorating, even if it were not for the financial crisis.

Strengthening the euro and only

Due to the fact that the USA has a big problem with its labor market and the housing market, the dollar has fallen by more than 4% against the euro (giving 12:00 on Friday). For a long time, the limit of $ 1.3 per euro was broken. Unlike the Fed, the expansionary monetary policy of the ECB has certainly contributed to the strengthening of the euro.

According to Japan, Japan only strengthened against the US dollar, when it broke the 90 USD / JPY mark. It has thus been confirmed that it is only a safe haven in good times, where investors do not have to worry about further years of rates (not really where).

Due to the significant results of the US economy and the relatively crushing economy of our economy, our currency strengthened and reached the dollar with almost and equal to 19 USD / CZK. In two euros, our crown is worth its money, although during the week it seemed to come out of the store. The holdings of positions in euros can also be attributed to a similar year for crowns and euros.

The British pound reached two long lows, trading at around 0.9 EUR / GBP on the bird at noon. This development is mainly due to the fact that, first of all, the island state about the development of the real economy is much higher than in continental Europe.

Shares rose first, then fell

Thanks to Obama’s announcement and the presumption of approved aid in the amount of 14 billion USD endangered by American carmakers, the market was put in good shape at the arrest of the week, which is why both our stock exchange and the stock exchanges in Europe and the US stock market recorded on Monday. The funds of the week were not clear in R or in the USA and the trajectory of the PX and S&P 500 index began to click. After investors managed to evaluate the negative macro data from the week, and after the US Sent rejected the help of GM and Chrysler, shares of both European and our direction gained rapidly today, when the first Western European stocks lost about 5% compared to the previous day.

In terms of all-day results, the PX index was about the same level as it was at the end of last week. At the same time, European titles, named after the DJ EURO STOXX index, were at a roughly 3% weekly profit. And the end of the first three days of this week, the S&P 500 index is at its values ​​from the end of last week, and I am convinced that the five trading laws are losing money.

Oil as a swing

Brent oil traded around USD 45 per barrel at that hour, which means that it strengthened by 10% by dark compared to the end of last week, even though it weakened last day and fully. As is well known, the development of the dollar exchange rate is negatively correlated with the development of oil prices, because a cheap dollar means cheap oil for non-US entities. This increase in black gold prices was due to the fact that, according to OPEC statistics, less oil was extracted, which was not expected. The OPEC meeting in Vienna will also play a role in this week, where a reduction in the limit is likely to be agreed.

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