Stock indices have risen a week in a row. The optimistic mood in the financial markets does not seem to be over. In the US alone, indices have risen ninefold in the last ten weeks. This week was no exception. Further economic data has managed to encourage more speculation that the US economy could do so again in the third quarter after a year of growth.
The results of American retail sales have attracted the most attention in recent days. They recorded a growth of 2.7% in August, which was the best result in the last three and a half years and its growth in sales.
The main driving force was sales of new cars, which grew by 25% in August, thanks to the rotating industry, which in the US reached $ 4,500. In addition, a number of tax rebates in Barack Obama’s package, which has set aside almost $ 800 billion to support the economy, is a strong impetus for US household data. This will gradually permeate the entire economy, which is reflected in other sectors, such as production or the housing market.
Several indicators of manufacturing activity in the United States’ industrial centers, such as New York and Philadelphia, have convinced traders that the manufacturing sector is growing strongly again in the United States.
In addition, the stabilization is also going through the housing market, where, according to the latest data, both the number of new building permits and newly started construction has increased again. The team, in addition to low years of rates and cheap mortgages, will benefit the tax at $ 8,000, which will be given to all those who buy their first house.
The favorable data are therefore mainly the result of fiscal stimulation of the economy, and because it can go several months to support its development, the real state of affairs is more likely to come and data that will come during the next year. However, this does not worry the trader yet, as evidenced by the growing trend in the stock markets, which have only 20% since mid-July in the US.
However, Slc optimism was also evident in other markets. At the foreign exchange, the American currency came under pressure again, which will add to its status as a safe state for the second week and to rates in the United States for a very short year. Only against the euro, it lost 2.1% during the week and fell to a very low level.
The cheap dollar and the reversal of the re-growth of the world’s largest economies then helped commodity prices. In fact, oil moved back above USD 71 / barrel every week, to which it was sent by the five weeks of declining oil prices in the USA.
The price of natural gas rose by another 18% during the week, and the price of gold, which reached USD 1,020 per troy ounce in the afternoon, remained close to the all-time high.
In recent days, the Czech Republic has been among the most interesting results, especially in retail sales. The mezzanine fell by 4.9%, but the result was significantly better than the market consensus expected.
However, the demand of Czech households will be subdued for a long time, mainly due to high unemployment and the caution of banks to return the private sector. The situation in the Czech economy and the political situation, which has become more dramatic due to the further postponement of the elections, are still tense, but investors do not obviously suffer yet.
Czech assets are still attractive, so last week the koruna could become the strongest me in the entire Central European region. Only the dollar got a little and below the level of 17 crowns, while against the euro it broke the limit of 25 crowns, where it last fluctuated in November last year.
So the coming week will offer a number of events. In the US, the US Fed will decide on rates, and the housing market will be made public, including the growth rate of orders or long-term consumption.
The euro area will provide indicators of activity in the manufacturing and services sectors (PMI), the growth rate of industrial orders and, above all, the German business sentiment index (IFO), which should rise again. The very expected indicator is expected to be good at first, and therefore the growth trend from previous weeks may not be at its end.